황원실, 강정은. (2026). Title: Beyond Global Scaling: A Diagnostic Protocol for Structural Heterogeneity and Regime Transition Thresholds in Urban Carbon Emissions. 2026 Western Regional Science Association. (2026. 02. 11. - 2026. 02. 14.)  

[Abstract] 

  Urban decarbonization strategies often rely on global scaling laws, which frequently fail to account for the structural heterogeneity inherent across varying urban typologies. This study introduces a novel diagnostic protocol to evaluate this heterogeneity and identify regime transition thresholds in urban carbon emissions. To overcome data scarcity and effectively capture local covariance, we employ an integrated PCA-CWM-MoE (Principal Component Analysis, Community-Weighted Mean, and Mixture of Experts) framework, utilizing a Space-for-Time Substitution approach. Our analysis classifies municipalities into four distinct urban typologies and critically reveals the "High-Density Paradox"―a phenomenon wherein increasing urban compaction exacerbates carbon emissions once a specific tipping point is breached. By explicitly quantifying these regime transition thresholds, this research advocates for a paradigm shift from precision diagnostics to precision policy. Ultimately, we propose a place-based decision framework designed to target strategic boundary zones, providing policymakers with actionable levers for precision decarbonization tailored by urban type. 

사사 : 연구재단(폭염대응), 기특대