이지윤, 황원실, 이정민, 강정은 (2024). Measurement of Urban Climate Resilience of Heat Wave. ACSP 2024 Annual Conference. (2024. 11. 07. - 2024. 11. 09.) 

 To build a model to diagnose and evaluate urban climate resilience to heat waves, we aim to develop a basic model by building a database of measured variables, estimating the thresholds of intermediate indicators of heat wave resilience, and verifying the suitability of the model. To measure urban climate resilience to heat waves, we used the number of heat illnesses in the summer season from June to August (2021 to 2023) and average household electricity consumption (2014 to 2022) as intermediate indicators. A panel threshold regression (Hansen, 1999) analysis was used to derive the threshold temperature at the national level. Borrowing concepts from the field of business continuity management (BCM) based on the work of Zobel et al. (2021), we applied the concepts of minimum business continuity x-objective (MBCO), which is the minimum level of service that must be provided in the event of a disaster, and maximum tolerable period of disruption (MTPD), which is the recovery kme if the system lasts below MBCO, as thresholds and critical times for local systems. 

 First, the panel threshold regression analysis showed a significant non-linear relationship between the number of heat illnesses, summer electricity consumption, and temperature. The threshold temperature based on the number of heat illnesses is 32.04℃, while the threshold temperature based on summer electricity consumption is 30.05℃ and 33.68℃. To measure the climate resilience of cities to heat waves by region, the threshold (MBCO) based on the number of people with heat illnesses was set to 0, and the threshold (MBCO) based on summer electricity consumption was set to the average value of spring and fall electricity consumption. Based on this, we estimated heat wave resilience by region. The resilience based on the number of heat illnesses ranged from 0.42 to 0.89, while the resilience based on summer electricity usage ranged from 0.68 to 0.93. Regions with a high number of heat illnesses in a short period of time were less resilient, while non-metropolitan areas with low electricity usage were more resilient. 

 This study is unique in that it uses a model for measuring urban climate resilience to heat waves, which is directly perceived by humans, and examines heat wave damage in terms of the number of people with heat illnesses and summer electricity consumption. Furthermore, by measuring heat wave resilience by region, future studies can examine the influencing factors of heat wave resilience and provide policy implications for improving the climate resilience of cities by region. 

키워드 : Heatwave, Resilience, Threshold Temperature, Minimum Business Continuity x-objective (MBCO) 

사사 : 기후탄력성